2012 Big Monday ESPN Picks: Syracuse @ Louisville Odds and Predictions – Free College Basketball Picks 2/13/2012

Free College Basketball Picks and Spreads: Syracuse @ Louisville 2012 NCAA Basketball Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions on ESPN 2/13/12: It’s rare that a week goes by without a matchup between ranked Big East opponents, and this week is no exception. The second-ranked Syracuse Orange faces a tough road test when they go on the road to face the 23rd-ranked Louisville Cardinals (20-5). Syracuse has all but wrapped up the conference and a No. 1 seed in March, but the Cardinals are finally healthy and have reeled off six wins in a row. Louisville is surging up the Big East standings, and the Orange could be the Cardinals’ next upset victim. However, No. 2 Syracuse is still a two-point favorite, even against a red hot Louisville team.

The two teams are night and day in terms of strategy on the offensive and defensive ends of the court. Syracuse uses waves of quality scorers and stays in attack mode, ranking in the top 25 in both points per game (77.8) and field goal percentage (48.1). Meanwhile, the Cardinals struggle on the offensive end of the court at times, shooting just 43.8 percent and ranking 86th in points per game. The opposite is true on the defensive end, where the Cardinals are the attacking team. Louisville likes to apply full court pressure, get physical, and dominate the glass. The Orange on the other hand likes to sit back in their 2-3 zone, forcing teams to shoot from the perimeter.

For the Orange, controlling the tempo on the offensive end will be crucial. Louisville center Gorgui Dieng is one of the better shot blockers in the nation, averaging more than three per game. He is also averaging more than 10 points and nearly 10 rebounds per game. However, Dieng and the Cardinals’ defense are at their best when they have the chance to set up and play in the half court. Syracuse guards Dion Waiters, Brandon Triche and Scoop Jardine are all capable of attacking the basket and neutralizing the Cardinals’ defense.

In order to counteract the Syracuse offense, Louisville will need a big game out of point guard Peyton Siva. He is the fastest player the Cardinals have, and when he is penetrating and finding open teammates, the Louisville offense can actually score with some consistency. However, Siva has had a bad habit of taking bad shots and turning the ball over, and if he does that Monday night, the Orange could turn the game into a blowout.

Given the strength and length of Syracuse’s zone, especially since the return of power forward Fab Melo, Louisville guards Chris Smith and Kyle Kuric will play a crucial role in deciding the outcome. The two players are the Cardinals’ only reliable 3-point shooters. Unless Kuric and Smith can hit some perimeter shots and loosen up the zone, the already-inconsistent Louisville offense could be downright ugly.

The X-factor in the game could be Cardinals’ freshman Wayne Blackshear. He has been hurt most of the season, but he made his debut in Louisville’s last game against West Virginia. Blackshear made an instant impression, scoring 13 points and nailing three 3-pointers. The added firepower, especially from beyond the arc, could be the added dimension the Cardinals’ offense has been lacking all season.

As good as the Cardinals have been recently, they haven’t defeated a single ranked team during the streak. Now, they have to try to take down the No. 2 team in the country. Syracuse may not be as relentless on defense as Louisville, but they are the far better team on the offensive end of the court. The Orange is the deeper team overall, and as Jim Boeheim’s bunch has done most of the year, they should outlast Louisville down the stretch.

Prediction: Syracuse Orange (-2) Covers the Spread

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