2012 BIG 12 Tournament Title Game Baylor vs Missouri Odds and Predictions – BIG 12 Championship Vegas Lines

2012 BIG 12 Tournament Championship Game Odds and Predictions on Baylor vs Missouri – 2012 BIG 12 Title Game Free Picks and Preview: Saturday’s Big 12 tournament title game was expected to be a rubber match between the fifth-ranked Missouri Tigers and the third-ranked Kansas Jayhawks, but the 11th-ranked Baylor Bears had other ideas. With an upset win over the Jayhawks in the semifinals, the Bears earned themselves a spot in the championship game against the Tigers. Missouri beat Baylor twice during the regular season, but the Bears lost both regular season meetings with Kansas, as well. After being the third-best team in the conference all season, Baylor is now one win away from being tournament champions. Of course, Missouri will have something to say about that, and the Tigers are 3 ½-point favorites.

When the two teams met in Waco during the regular season, Missouri escaped with an 89-88 victory. The Tigers had an even easier time at home, cruising to a 72-57 win over the Bears. In both games, Missouri forward Ricardo Ratliffe had a major impact, controlling the paint against a much bigger Baylor lineup. The Bears frontcourt features double figure scorers Quincy Acy and Perry Jones III, while the Tigers start Ratliffe and four guards. Instead of being overmatched inside, Ratliffe gave Missouri the edge, scoring 27 in the first game and holding Jones and Acy to a combined 11 points in the second meeting. Baylor should have an advantage inside, and if the Bears fail to exploit it, they will likely be looking at a 0-3 record against Missouri this season.

Another issue for the Bears will be slowing down the pace of the game. Baylor is a high-scoring team in its own right, but the Tigers rank seventh in the country in points per game and third in field goal percentage. Attempting to outscore Missouri is a recipe for disaster, and the Bears best chance of winning is to control the tempo and take advantage of their size inside. This task will fall on the shoulders of Baylor point guard Pierre Jackson. He is one of the better assist men in the Big 12, and since the ball will be in his hands on every possession, Jackson can control just about everything the Bears do on the offensive end.

The X-factor in the game could be 3-point shooting. Led by Marcus Denmon and Kim English, Missouri’s four-guard lineup has had a huge edge on the perimeter in the two meetings with Baylor. The Tigers have hit a combined 21 3-pointers during the two games, including 14 in the second meeting. The Bears don’t have to outscore Missouri from beyond the arc to win, but they can’t be completely dominated as they have in the two losses.

One player that could make the difference in the outcome is Jones. The Baylor forward is a highly-regarded NBA prospect because of his athleticism and skill set. However, he has a bad habit of being passive, rather than taking over on the offensive end. Jones has been bucking this trend in the Big 12 tournament, averaging 25 points per game through the first two rounds. If he has another monster offensive game Saturday, he could be the added firepower the Bears have been lacking.

Despite the upset win over Kansas, Baylor still has some questions left to answer against the Tigers. Missouri’s edge on the perimeter has proven to be a bigger advantage than Baylor’s edge inside. As talented as the Bears’ post players are, Baylor lacks similar athleticism in the backcourt. Missouri’s guards are just too fast and can score in too many ways to be held in check by Baylor. Jones could make things interesting with a big game, but Denmon’s clutch shooting ability should come in handy for Missouri if things do get tight.

Prediction: Missouri Tigers (-3 ½) Cover the Spread

BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP GAME VEGAS ODDS: Favorite: Missouri -3.5 Total: Over/Under 149

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