2012 AAA 400 Odds, Free Picks and Predictions – AAA 400 Favorites and Sleepers to Win at Dover International Speedway: The Cup Series returns to Dover International Speedway this weekend, and the track never seems to disappoint when it comes to producing tough, door-to-door racing. The 1.0-mile concrete oval has earned its nickname the “Monster Mile” over the years for a variety of reasons. With barriers on both sides, any wreck can quickly become violent as cars often bounce from the top of the track to the bottom, collecting other cars along the way. Throw in a narrow pit road, and winning at Dover is as much about surviving as it is about having a fast car.
Last fall, Jimmie Johnson and Carl Edwards battled for the lead much of the race. The two combined to lead 273 of the 400 laps with Johnson leading a race-high 157. However, a fast pit stop from Kurt Busch’s crew gave him the lead late in the race, and Busch never relinquished the track position. Busch was too much to handle in clean air, and he drove away to the win while Johnson and Edwards settled for second and third.
Earlier this year, Jimmie Johnson made sure that he didn’t let another win slip away. He absolutely clobbered the competition, leading 289 of the 400 laps. The rest of the drivers that finished in the top 10 combined to lead just three laps. It was a dominating performance on the part of the No. 48 bunch, and it was his seventh victory at Dover in his career.
The Favorite – 2012 AAA 400 Odds, Predictions and Free Picks
At least for this weekend’s race at Dover, Jimmie Johnson is in a class by himself. He finished second at the track last fall, and earlier this year, he clobbered the competition on his way to his fourth win in the last seven races at the track. Johnson is a seven-time winner at Dover in his career, and a season sweep could be on tap.
The Dark Horses – 2012 AAA 400 Odds, Predictions and Free Picks
Matt Kenseth is no stranger to finishing near the front at Dover. In fact, he has finished in the top five in eight of his last nine starts at the track, including three straight. Kenseth has one win at Dover during the stretch and is a two-time winner overall. Fresh off a third-place finish at the track in June, Kenseth is basically a lock to be battling at the front of the field on Sunday.
He continues to be on a roll, and Kasey Kahne has climbed from 12th to fifth in the standings just two races into the Chase. More importantly, he has finished in the top 10 in the last two races at Dover, including a fourth-place run last fall. Kahne has had some bad luck that has robbed him of a couple of victories at the track, but as well as he had been running lately, it could be his time to break through.
Although he hasn’t been a serious threat to win a race in quite a while, Kevin Harvick could be poised to change that this weekend at Dover. He has six straight top-15 finishes at the track, including three straight top-10s. More importantly, he finished second at Dover earlier this year and was the only driver that could even keep touch with eventual winner Jimmie Johnson. If he can build on his performance in June, Harvick could make a long overdue trip to Victory Lane.
Sleeper Specials – 2012 AAA 400 Odds, Predictions and Free Picks
He made his Dover debut earlier this year, and Aric Almirola made a big first impression. He was fast in qualifying, fast in practice and fast on race day. Almirola ended up finishing sixth, which remains his best finish of the year. If he improves even a little at his return trip to the track this weekend, Almirola might have a chance to upset the big names.
In his last three starts at Dover, Marcos Ambrose has been rock solid. He has three straight top-10s at the track, posting 7.3 average finish during the stretch. Dover has been one of the few tracks outside of the road courses where Ambrose has consistently finished near the front, and it just might become the site of his first oval win.
Big Name to Avoid – 2012 AAA 400 Odds, Predictions and Free Picks
Defending champion Tony Stewart is back in the thick of the title hunt, but he faces a major hurdle this weekend. He has finished outside the top 20 in his last four starts at Dover and has finished 25th or worse in his last three starts at the track. The worst part about his struggles is that Stewart has been just plain slow. He will likely be playing damage control Sunday, and a win would be a huge surprise.
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2012 AAA 400 Odds – September 30th.
Driver Odds to Win the 2012 AAA 400
Jimmie Johnson 9/2
Kyle Busch 8/1
Matt Kenseth 8/1
Brad Keselowski 10/1
Kasey Kahne 10/1
Jeff Gordon 10/1
Greg Biffle 12/1
Denny Hamlin 12/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr 12/1
Carl Edwards 12/1
Tony Stewart 12/1
Kevin Harvick 15/1
Clint Bowyer 15/1
Martin Truex Jr 15/1
Mark Martin 20/1
Marcos Ambrose 60/1
Ricky Stenhouse 60/1
Joey Logano 60/1
Ryan Newman 75/1
Regan Smith 100/1
Bobby Labonte 100/1
Danica Patrick 100/1
Aric Almirola 100/1
Sam Hornish Jr 100/1
Jamie McMurray 100/1
Paul Menard 100/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 100/1
Jeff Burton 100/1
Kurt Busch 100/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 50/1
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