2011 O’Reilly Auto Parts 300 Vegas Odds and Predictions – Favorites and Drivers to Bet On: Nationwide Series races at Texas Motor Speedway have been dominated by one man – Kyle Busch. The most dominant driver in the series in recent years has been at his best at the 1.5-mile track. In his last seven starts, he has finished either first or second, including a run of five straight wins from April of 2008 to April of 2010. Busch’s stranglehold on the track has been nothing short of spectacular.
Busch’s fifth straight win at the track came in April last year in dominating fashion. He led 153 of the 200 laps and held off his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Joey Logano for the victory. It was a dominating performance by the Cup regulars that afternoon as they claimed eight of the top-10 spots.
In the fall race, Busch’s winning streak finally came to an end, but that doesn’t mean he didn’t have a dominant car. He led 107 of the 205 laps, but he couldn’t handle Carl Edwards down the stretch. Busch settled for second and Edwards celebrated with a backflip.
The Favorites
Needless to say, Kyle Busch is the driver to beat this weekend. In addition to his five-race winning streak, he has 11 finishes of seventh or better in 12 career starts at Texas. Busch has nine top-five finishes at the track, including eight finishes of first or second. The smart money is on Busch.
He nearly won the April race at Texas last fall, and Joey Logano has had plenty of success at the track in his brief career. He has finished fourth or better in three of his five starts and has compiled a 9.2 average finish. Logano had a shot at winning both races last season, and it is only a matter of time before he gets to Victory Lane.
The Dark Horses
Bad luck has slowed Brad Keselowski in 2011, but he could get back on track this weekend at Texas. He has finished seventh or better in five straight starts at the track, including four straight top-five finishes. Keselowski’s third-place finish at the track last fall was the best of his career, and the next step is to win a race.
Despite winning at the track last November, Carl Edwards has been hit or miss at Texas throughout his career. He has five top-five finishes at the track, but he also has five finishes outside the top-10. Edwards had the potential to win, but he also has the potential to be a major disappointment.
Sleepers Specials
He will be making a rare Nationwide start this weekend, and Paul Menard could be a serious threat to pull the upset. He has four straight top-10 finishes at the track, including a fifth-place effort. Menard is a stud at the 1.5-mile tracks, and he has proven in the past he can contend with the big names.
Consistency has been the key for Jason Leffler at Texas. He has finished 17th or better in eight straight starts, including seven finishes inside the top-15. Leffler has finishes of third and sixth in his last three starts at the track, and he is the one Nationwide regular that may get to Victory Lane.
Big Names to Avoid
Although he is a former winner at Texas, Kasey Kahne carries some serious red flags. He has finished outside the top-10 in his last six starts, including five finishes outside the top-20. Kahne brings the potential to win, but history says he is more likely to be a non-factor.
PREDICTION: Kyle Busch to WIN at +180 Odds
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Drivers/Odds
Driver Odds to Win the Nationwide O’Reilly Auto Parts 300 Friday, April 8th(8:30 PM EST) at Texas Motor Speedway
Kyle Busch +180
Carl Edwards +450
Brad Keselowski +500
Joey Logano +500
Kasey Kahne +800
David Reutimann +1200
Aric Almirola +2000
Paul Menard +2000
Reed Sorenson +2500
Elliot Sadler +2500
Justin Allgaier +2500
Ricky Stenhouse +1800
Jason Leffler +2500
Trevor Bayne +1800
Field +1200
Check out this week’s NASCAR vegas odds for this week’s 2011 Samsung Mobile 500 Sprint Cup Series race.