2011 Kentucky Derby Favorite Breakdown: Why Uncle Mo Can Still Win

2011 Kentucky Derby Favorite: Uncle Mo the Horse to Beat at Churchill Downs May 7th: Entering the Wood Memorial, the sky was the limit for Unlce Mo. The horse was the heavy favorite to win the race and was in line to become the favorite to win the Kentucky Derby. However, Uncle Mo faded down the stretch of the Wood Memorial, finishing third and calling into question his chances to win at Churchill Downs.

While the surprising loss caused a mass exodus from the Uncle Mo bandwagon, the recent announcement that the horse was actually sick for the Wood Memorial should have bettors reconsidering giving up on Uncle Mo. Blood results from the post-race exam revealed that the horse was suffering a gastrointestinal tract infection, which vets admitted could have caused Uncle Mo to perform at less than an optimal level. The same vets also said he should be back at full strength in time for the Derby.

Throw out the third-place result when he was battling the infection, and the rest of Uncle Mo’s resume is pretty impressive. He won all four of his previous starts, and all four races came on dirt surfaces. Uncle Mo even led for a good portion of the Wood Memorial before his late fade. Had the horse gone on to win that race, he would be the overwhelming favorite in the Kentucky Derby. In a year when seemingly every favorite has fallen during the prep races, why isn’t the horse that had the best numbers prior to the Derby prep still being viewed as the frontrunner?

The only other knock on Uncle Mo prior to his loss was his ability to finish races. The horse has made a habit of exploding out of the gate and getting to the front as quick as possible. With the Triple Crown events being the longest races Uncle Mo will have faced, many people are assuming a fast starter will fade over the course of a long event.

However, the Kentucky Derby(check the latest odds at SBG Global Racebook) is only one and a quarter miles in length. Is Uncle Mo’s style conducive to winning the Triple Crown? No. That being said, bettors don’t have to worry about whether or not the horse can win all three prestigious races. He just has to win the Kentucky Derby, which is well within reason considering he has been working his way up to the race’s length anyway during his previous starts.

There is a reason Uncle Mo was the most-hyped horse in the months leading up to the Derby. If bettors let one subpar performance from a sick horse sway their opinion of Uncle Mo, they could be missing out on a big pay day.

Check out the latest Kentucky Derby Odds as well as NSAwins.com’s 2011 Kentucky Derby Free Picks and Preview article.

Get more 2011 Kentucky Derby Predictions on NSAwins.com from Expert Kentucky Derby handicappers.