2011 March Madness Bracketology Predictions and Projections to Make 2011 NCAA Tournament – Updated 3/2/2011: March has finally arrived and what better way to get oursleves prepared for predicting winning Madness Madness Picks than by predicting what teams will be selected as the 34 at-large invitees by the selection committee on Sunday, March 13th. Let’s go…
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ACC – Tournament Champion(Automatic), At-Large Teams(5)
LOCKS: Duke, North Carolina, Florida St
LOOKING GOOD: Boston College
IN BUT NEED STRONG FINISH: Virginia Tech
ON THE BUBBLE: Clemson, Maryland
ANALYSIS: Virginia Tech’s mediocre RPI of 63 is a cause for concern for Hokies fans despite Va Tech’s 9-6 ACC record. The VT-Clemson matchup on March 5th looms large for both team’s NCAA Tournament hopes.
PREDICTION(1 CHAMP, 5 AT-LARGE): Duke, North Carolina, Florida St, Boston College, Virginia Tech and Maryland get IN. Clemson heading to the NIT.
ATLANTIC 10 – Tournament Champion(Automatic), At-Large Teams(1-2)
LOCKS: Xavier, Temple
ON THE BUBBLE: Richmond
ANALYSIS: Richmond’s low RPI of 61 makes a strong run to the Atlantic 10 Championship Game almost mandatory for the Spiders if they hope to earn an at-large bid.
PREDICTION(1 CHAMP, 1 AT-LARGE): Temple and Xavier IN. Richmond just misses the field.
BIG EAST – Tournament Champion(Automatic), At-Large Teams(9-10)
LOCKS: Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Louisville, Syracuse, Georgetown, St John’s, Uconn, Cincinnati, Villanova
IN BUT NEED STRONG FINISH: West Virginia
ON THE BUBBLE: Marquette
ANALYSIS: West Virginia’s STRONG RPI of 22 makes them almost a LOCK in our eyes despite WVU’s 18-10 overall record. Marquette is finishing STRONG but their RPI is only 53 so they will need to win a couple games in the BIG EAST Touranment if they want to be a record 11th Big East Team in this year’s field.
PREDICTION(1 CHAMP, 9 AT-LARGE): Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Louisville, Syracuse, Georgetown, St John’s, Uconn, Cincinnati, Villanova and West Virginia. Marquette just misses out and heads to the NIT.
BIG TEN – Tournament Champion(Automatic), At-Large Teams(2-3)
LOCKS: Ohio St, Purdue, Wisconsin
ON THE BUBBLE: Michigan St, Illinois, Michigan
ANALYSIS: Illinois(RPI 38), Michigan St(42) and Michigan(RPI 57) are all on the BUBBLE in a big time way. Frankly, NONE of them deserve to make it but something tells us the selection committe will get four teams from the BIG 10 in. The NCAA loves the BIG 10 Conference, folks. National experts keep saying Michigan St is in and they have the history of NCAA Tournament success so our money is on MSU getting the nod.
PREDICTION(1 CHAMP, 3 AT-LARGE): Ohio St, Purdue, Wisconsin and Michigan St IN. Illinois and Michigan OUT.
BIG 12 – Tournament Champion(Automatic), At-Large Teams(5-6)
LOCKS: Kansas, Texas, Missouri, Texas A&M, Kansas St
ON THE BUBBLE: Colorado, Nebraska, Baylor
ANALYSIS: The three BUBBLE TEAMS(Colorado, Nebraska, Baylor) are in trouble. All three have low RPI’s in the 70’s and NONE of them have any significant non-conference wins to showcase on their resumes. They all need to make the BIg 12 semi’s at least if they plan on getting an at-large bid.
PREDICTION(1 CHAMP, 4 AT-LARGE): Kansas, Texas, Missouri, Texas A&M, Kansas St. Everyone else on the outside looking in.
CONFERENCE USA – Tournament Champion(Automatic), At-Large Teams(1-2)
LOCKS: NONE
ON THE BUBBLE: UAB, Memphis, So Miss, UTEP
ANALYSIS: UAB(RPI 31), Memphis(RPI 33) and So Miss(RPI 39) all have strong RPI’s and should be get serious consideration as at-large invitees. However, none of them have any outstanding non-conference wins to hang their hat on. Only two teams, if that, will get in this year’s field.
PREDICTION(1 CHAMP, 1 AT-LARGE): So Miss and Memphis IN. UAB and UTEP OUT.
COLONIAL ATHLETIC – Tournament Champion(Automatic), At-Large Teams(1-2)
LOCKS: George Mason
IN BUT NEED STRONG FINISH: Old Dominion
ON THE BUBBLE: Drexel, VCU
ANALYSIS: Regular season CAA Champion George Mason(RPI 24) is a LOCK and should get a high seed in this year’s NCAA Tournament Bracket. Old Dominion(RPI 27) also looks to be in excellent shape but better hope they don’t slip up in the postseason tournament or have someone other than George Mason win the CAA Tournament if it wants to secure an at-large bid. VCU(RPI 65) and Drexel(RPI 62) are both extreme long shots to earn at-large bids.
PREDICTION(1 CHAMP, 1 AT-LARGE): George Mason and Old Dominion both get IN. Drexel, VCU OUT.
HORIZON LEAGUE – Tournament Champion(Automatic), At-Large Teams(0-1)
LOCKS: NONE
ON THE BUBBLE: Cleveland St, Butler
ANALYSIS: Cleveland St(RPI 44) and Butler(RPI 46) both shared a piece of the Horizon League regular season title but Butler has the inside track at an at-large bid if it comes down to both teams as Butler went 2-0 against Cleveland St in the regular season. If Butler wins the tournament than we can see Cleveland St getting left out. If Cleveland St or somebody else wins the Horizon League tourney than we see Butler getting in as an at-large.
PREDICTION(1 CHAMP, 0 AT-LARGE): Butler wins tournament and gets IN with automatic berth. Cleveland St OUT.
MISSOURI VALLEY – Tournament Champion(Automatic), At-Large Teams(0-1)
LOCKS: Missouri St
ON THE BUBBLE: Wichita St
ANALYSIS: Missouri St is a LOCK due to their strong RPI of 41, regular season MVC title and a 2-0 regular season series sweep over Wichita St. The Shockers are still looking good with a RPI of 52 and strong 23-7 overall record but will need to reach the MVC title game to lock in at least an ant-large bid.
PREDICTION(1 CHAMP, 1 AT-LARGE): Missouri St and Wichita St IN.
MOUNTAIN WEST – Tournament Champion(Automatic), At-Large Teams(2-3)
LOCKS: BYU, San Diego St, UNLV
ON THE BUBBLE: Colorado St
ANALYSIS: BYU, San Diego St and UNLV will all get in no matter what. BYU and San Diego St are obvious, but UNLV’s strong RPI of 26 and non-conference wins over Wisconsin, Va Tech and Kansas St far outweigh their 0-4 record versus BYU and San Diego St. Barring an ugly loss in their Mountain West Tournament opener the Runnin Rebels are IN.
PREDICTION(1 CHAMP, 2 AT-LARGE): BYU, San Diego St, UNLV IN. Colorado St OUT.
PAC 10 – Tournament Champion(Automatic), At-Large Teams(2)
LOCKS: UCLA, Arizona, Washington
ON THE BUBBLE: Washington St, Cal, USC
ANALYSIS: Frankly, this is the easiest MAJOR Conference to predict. UCLA, Arizona and Washington are all getting IN no matter how they fare in the Pac 10 Tournament. Everyone else needs to win the tournament to get the automatic bid. It’s as simple as that.
PREDICTION(1 CHAMP, 2 AT-LARGE): UCLA, Arizona and Washington IN.
SEC – Tournament Champion(Automatic), At-Large Teams(2-4)
LOCKS: Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt
ON THE BUBBLE: Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee
ANALYSIS: Alabama won the SEC West with ease but has a low RPI of 87 and no out of conference quality wins. They are in trouble unless they reach the SEC Tournament semifinals at least. Tennessee(RPI 34) has a strong RPI and a number of impressive quality wins(Villanova, Pittsburgh, VCU, Missouri St, Memphis, Vanderbilt(2), Georgia). The Vols should sneak in as an at-large bid. Georgia(RPI 36) looks to be in solid shape.
PREDICTION(1 CHAMP, 5 AT-LARGE): Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee Georgia and Alabama IN.
WEST COAST – Tournament Champion(Automatic), At-Large Teams(0-1)
LOCKS: NONE
ON THE BUBBLE: Gonzaga, St Mary’s
ANALYSIS: St Mary’s(RPI 49) and Gonzaga(RPI 67) are definitely squarely on the BUBBLE heading into the WCC Tournament. Both could go dancing and both could be OUT if a surprise teams wins the WCC Tournament in Las Vegas. Our money is on both teams reaching the Championship Game with Gonzaga winning it and St Mary’s just missing out on an at-large bid.
PREDICTION(1 CHAMP, 0 AT-LARGE): Gonzaga wins tournament AUTOMATIC bid and gets IN. St Mary’s OUT.
LAST FOUR BUBBLE TEAMS IN THE FIELD: Alabama, Wichita St, Michigan St, Maryland
LAST FOUR BUBBLE TEAMS OUT OF THE FIELD: Illinois, UAB, St Mary’s, Cleveland St