2019 Oklahoma vs LSU Predictions – College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl: The first of two College Football Playoff semifinal matchups has the No. 4 Oklahoma Sooners taking on the top-ranked and undefeated LSU Tigers in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl. Led by Heisman winner Joe Burrow, the Tigers will be looking to cap a resurgent year for the program with a national title. The Sooners are no strangers to the playoff, but they will have their work cut out for them if they hope to finally advance past the semifinals. LSU is listed as a 13-point favorite in the showdown between the SEC and Big 12 champions.
It what is becoming the norm since Lincoln Riley became the head coach, Oklahoma has been a force on the offensive side of the ball. Former Alabama quarterback Jalen Hurts has thrived in his first year with the Sooners, throwing for 3,634 yards and running for 1,255 yards while scoring a combined 50 touchdowns. His top target, CeeDee Lamb, is one of the most explosive receivers in the country and a future first-round pick. The duo is the main reason the Sooners are averaging 43.2 points and 554.2 yards of offense per game.
Burrow’s Heisman-winning campaign saw him set SEC records with 4,715 passing yards and 48 touchdowns. Receiver Ja’Marr Chase has been his go-to guy, accounting for 1,498 yards and 18 scores, but while the Tigers have one of the best passing attacks in the country, they also have a weapon in the backfield. Clyde Edwards-Helaire has rushed for 1,290 yards and 16 scores, and as a team, LSU is averaging 47.8 points and 554.3 yards of offense per game.
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The Sooners Win If:
If the Sooners are going to derail the Tigers, they need Hurts to be at his best as both a runner and a passer, and Hurts can’t be careless with the football and give LSU any short fields. Oklahoma’s offense is on a different level when Hurts is connecting on throws down the field and creating havoc with his scrambling ability, and while LSU has been unstoppable offense, the defense has been vulnerable at times. Defensively, the Sooners aren’t going to be able to stop the Tigers, but if they can at least limit the big plays, it will go a long way to making this game competitive. If the Sooners can put some points on the board early and keep the pressure on the Tigers defense, they have the firepower to keep pace in a high-scoring game and give Hurts a chance to be the X-factor.
The Tigers Win If:
LSU has been an offensive juggernaut all season, and they don’t need to get overly anxious and try to reinvent the wheel now that it is playoff time. One of the few things the Tigers don’t have is experience in the College Football Playoff, and the worst thing Burrow can do is try to land a knockout punch right of the gate and start pressing for big plays. He just needs to continue to spread the ball to his playmakers as he has all year, and the points and big plays will come. Defensively, LSU has to get off the field when the opportunities arise. Hurts is a big play waiting to happen, and if the Tigers give him too many chances to make plays, he could burn them in a big way.
Bottom Line:
On paper, these look like two evenly matched offenses. The Tigers and Sooners rank first and second in the country total offense, respectively, and both sides rank in the top five in points per game. However, Burrow and company have piled up points against much tougher competition, and while Hurts might be the most versatile offensive player in this matchup, the Tigers have more overall playmakers. More importantly, the Sooners have been plagued by inconsistency all season. From their defensive collapse against Kansas State to their narrow escapes over Iowa State and Baylor, it has been a long time since the Sooners have looked capable of putting together the four elite quarters of football it is going to take to upset LSU. Hurts and company will get some points on the board, but look for Burrow to pick apart the Oklahoma defense from start to finish while the Tigers steadily pull away.
Prediction: LSU Tigers (-13) Cover the Spread
