2019 Ford EcoBoost 400 Picks – Value Bets and Sleepers at Homestead-Miami Speedway: The 2019 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series wraps up this weekend with a trip to Homestead-Miami Speedway for the Ford EcoBoost 400. All eyes will be on the Championship 4 as they battle for the title, and in the five years since the playoffs began, a driver competing for the title has also won the finale at Homestead.
Not surprisingly, the four drivers still eligible for the title are heavy favorites in Sunday’s race, but if there was ever going to be an upset, it could happen this year. For one, the high-downforce, reduced-horsepower package being used this year has created more volatility at the 1.5-mile tracks than ever before. NASCAR will also be using a tire package that has never been brought to Homestead before, the same package used in races at Chicagoland and Darlington earlier this year.
Look, I still plan on placing a majority of my bets on the championship hopefuls, but I do think there a few potential value bets and longshots on the board that are worthy of your attention. If you are trying to cap the 2019 season with a big payout, here are the drivers I’d back for Sunday’s Ford EcoBoost 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
2019 Ford EcoBoost 400 Picks: Value Bets and Sleepers at Homestead-Miami Speedway
Value Bets
Value Bets
Joey Logano (25/1)
He won’t be defending his title this weekend, but Logano could still cap the 2019 season with a win. After all, he ranks second in both points scored and laps led at the mile-and-a-half ovals this season, and he has finished sixth or better in each of the last four races at Homestead. Logano has led more than 70 laps in two of the four races in that stretch, leading a race-high 80 laps in his victory here last season. Outside of the Championship 4, Logano and Kyle Larson are the most likely drivers to reach victory lane Sunday. Larson is listed at 8/1. Needless to say, Logano is a much better value.
Erik Jones (60/1)
His first two starts at Homestead haven’t gone well for Jones, but he could be a sleeping giant in this weekend’s finale. He has been excellent at the 1.5-mile tracks all year, finishing in the top 10 in seven of the 10 races and logging six finishes of seventh or better. Perhaps more importantly, Jones has excelled in the two races this year that have featured the tire package that will be used this weekend, finishing seventh at Chicagoland and leading 79 laps in a win at Darlington. All three of his Joe Gibbs Racing teammates will be running for the title Sunday, and if throw a few bucks at Jones, you get exposure to the same equipment with roughly 20 times the profit potential.
Alex Bowman (60/1)
It has been an up-and-down year for Bowman, but he has been locked in at the mile-and-a-half tracks. He has finished 11th or better in seven of the 10 races, and his 9.3 average finish in those starts is the third best of any driver. Bowman has led laps and finished seventh or better in five of the last races at 1.5-mile ovals, leading a race-high 88 laps in a win at Chicagoland during that span. As I’ve already mentioned, the same tire package that was used at Chicagoland will be used again this weekend at Homestead. Watch out for Bowman Sunday.
Sleeper Special
Matt DiBenedetto (1000/1)
A side effect of the Championship 4 being such heavy favorites is that longshots like DiBenedetto see their odds to win plummet. Typically listed around 100/1 to win, the driver of the No. 95 team has opened at 1000/1 for Sunday’s finale. Yes, it is going to take some luck for DiBenedetto to end up in victory lane, but he has been a steady Top 15 performer in the second half of the year, and since the playoffs began, he ranks 16th in points scored. Every driver that ranks ahead of him is listed at 200/1 or better in win Sunday, so you can get five times the upside for a driver who has been performing at a similar level. Throw in the fact that DiBenedetto managed a Top 10 finish at Darlington in a race that featured the tire package being used this weekend at Homestead, and I have no problem making him a lottery ticket this weekend.
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