2019 AAA Texas 500 Picks & Predictions – Value Bets & Sleepers at Texas Motor Speedway: The Round of 8 continues this weekend when the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series visits Texas Motor Speedway. Sunday’s AAA Texas 500 is the second race of the year at the track and the 10th race at a mile-and-a-half oval, and whenever the series visits at a 1.5-mile track like Texas, you will want to target drivers from stronger teams.
Fair or not, the teams with the bigger budgets and more resources are better equipped to handle the combination of power and aerodynamics that it takes to be successful at these high-speed, intermediate ovals. Obviously, this favors the top drivers in the series, but you don’t have to bet on Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr. or Kevin Harvick to have exposure to have exposure to the same equipment that these drivers have.
Targeting teammates of the top drivers can be a great way to find a little value with your bets at these mile-and-a-half tracks. Already this year, we have seen Alex Bowman, Erik Jones and Kurt Busch pick up wins at this type of track, and there are a few intriguing value bets and longshots that I have my eye on for Sunday’s AAA Texas 500 at Texas Motor Speedway.
2019 AAA Texas 500 Picks & Predictions: Value Bets & Sleepers at Texas Motor Speedway
Value Bets
Erik Jones (25/1)
Jones is no stranger to running well at the mile-and-a-half tracks, and in the nine races this season, he has six finishes of seventh or better. That doesn’t even include his win at Darlington, a track that is nearly a mile and a half in length. He also has four straight top-10s at Texas, and he has finished fourth in his last three starts at the track, leading 64 laps in the spring race last year and 30 laps in the March race earlier this season.
William Byron (25/1)
The sophomore is coming on strong down the stretch, and he is fresh off a second-place finish at Martinsville last weekend. More importantly, Byron has been great at the 1.5-mile ovals in 2019. He has an 11.8 average finish in the nine races, leading laps in seven of those starts and cracking the top 10 in four of the last five. Byron led 15 laps and finished sixth at Texas in March, and he returns to the track running better than he ever has at the Cup level.
Jimmie Johnson (40/1)
Johnson hasn’t been a dominant driver for a few years, but he has bounced back a bit at the mile-and-a-half ovals as the season has gone on. He has finished 11th or better in six of the last seven races at 1.5-mile ovals, and during the stretch, he had a great showing at Texas. Johnson sat on the pole in the spring race at the track, leading 60 laps and finishing in the top five. Throw in the fact that Johnson is a seven-time winner at Texas for his career, and if the veteran is going to find his way back to victory lane, and there is a decent chance it could happen at Texas.
Clint Bowyer (60/1)
It has been a rollercoaster year for Bowyer, but he has actually shown some upside at the 1.5-mile tracks. He has finished sixth or better in four of the nine races, and his best finish of the season came in the spring race at Texas when he finished second. At 60/1, I don’t mind throwing a little money at the guy who was the runner-up at this same track earlier this year.
Sleeper Special
Daniel Suarez (80/1)
His overall numbers at the 1.5-mile tracks don’t jump off the page, and in the nine races this year, Suarez has a 16.2 average finish and ranks 19th in total points scored. However, his best performance of the season came at Texas back in March. He finished a season-best third in that race, leading nine laps and recording a driver rating of 111.4. It is the only race this year when Suarez has recorded a rating of 100-plus, and it is also the time he has recorded an average running position inside the top 10. I’m not sure if he can back up that run this weekend, but at 80/1, I don’t mind finding out.
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2019 AAA Texas 500 Odds
Denny Hamlin #11 +300
Kevin Harvick #4 +300
Kyle Busch #18 +500
Martin Truex Jr. #19 +600
Kyle Larson #42 +1000
Kurt Busch #1 +1100
Brad Keselowski #2 +1300
Erik Jones #20 +1300
Joey Logano #22 +1700
Chase Elliott #9 +1800
Clint Bowyer #14 +1900
Ryan Blaney #12 +2200
Aric Almirola #10 +2500
Daniel Suarez #41 +3000
William Byron #24 +3000
Alex Bowman #88 +3500
Jimmie Johnson #48 +5500
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. #17 +8800
Matt DiBenedetto #95 +10000
Ryan Newman #6 +15000
Chris Buescher #37 +25000
Austin Dillon #3 +27500
Paul Menard #21 +32500
Daniel Hemric #8 +45000
Ryan Preece #47 +75000
Darrell Wallace Jr. #43 +100000
Michael McDowell #34 +100000
Ty Dillon #13 +100000
David Ragan #38 +150000
John H. Nemechek #36 +250000
Landon Cassill #00 +400000
Reed Sorenson #15 +400000
Ross Chastain #27 +400000
Corey LaJoie #32 +500000
Garrett Smithely #52 +500000
JJ Yeley #53 +500000
Josh Bilicki #51 +500000
Parker Kligerman #96 +500000
Quin Houff #77 +500000
Timmy Hill #66 +500000