2011 Kobalt Tools 400 Betting Odds Breakdown – Who to Bet On and How to Win Money on NASCAR Betting this week: Savvy betting isn’t only about knowing which underdogs to take a chance on. It is just as important to know which of the favorites to stay away from. Oddsmakers can undervalue a driver just as easily as they can overvalue another. Past performances, momentum, and several other factors can all impact a driver’s success at a particular track, and having as much knowledge as possible is the best way for betters to spot a bargain. With the Cup Series heading to Las Vegas, there is no better time for gamblers to take full advantage of the odds and make them work in their favor.
Looking at this weekend’s lines, Jeff Burton stands out as one of several potential steals. He is a 25/1 longshot to win, but his is arguably the most consistent driver in Vegas history. His 9.9 average finish is the best among drivers with more than two starts at the track, and he won back-to-back races in 1999 and 2000. More importantly, he has finished in the top-five in two of his last three starts at the track. Burton shouldn’t be considered a favorite by any means, but he is better than his current odds suggest.
Another two-time winner not getting enough respect is Matt Kenseth. Like Burton, he is a two-time winner at Vegas, and like Burton, he is getting 25/1 odds to win this weekend. He has three top-five finishes in his last five starts at the track, including a fifth-place run last season. The Ford drivers have been looking pretty stout since the second half of the 2010 season, and Kenseth is traditionally one of the best at the 1.5-mile tracks. Betters should seriously considering putting some money on him this Sunday.
Put Mark Martin down as the third driver with 25/1 odds that is being overlooked this weekend. The former Vegas winner has finished in the top-10 in four of his last five starts at the track. He has finished sixth or better in three of his starts during the stretch, including a fourth-place finish last week. Hendrick Motorsports looked dominant last weekend at Phoenix, and the organization has traditionally run well at Vegas well.
Not every driver has the potential to be a steal, and Tony Stewart is on the list of big names that could turn out to be a bust this Sunday. He has never won at Vegas and hasn’t had a top-five finish at the track since 2004, but he is getting 12/1 odds Sunday. Stewart has finished outside the top-20 in three of his last five starts at LVMS, and there are no signs that he will suddenly break through this weekend. Betters should save their money for other options this weekend.
Another driver that has never won at Vegas is Denny Hamlin, but he is getting 11/1 odds. In fact, he has just a single top-five finish in five starts at the track. Not to mention the fact that, his two worst finishes have come in his last two starts. Hamlin has been improving his performance at the 1.5-mile tracks the last two years, but Vegas has remained an obstacle. Betters shouldn’t waste their money.
It’s hard for gamblers not to love Carl Edwards. He is one of the hottest drivers in NASCAR, and he is a former Vegas winner. That being said, he hasn’t run as well at LVMS as his 8/1 odds would suggest. His victory in 2008 is his only top-five finish at the track in six starts, and he has finished outside the top-10 in four of those six starts. Although he has proven he can win, the payoff isn’t that great for a driver that has been largely mediocre at this weekend’s track.
Last but not least, I’ll cater to the true risk takers. At 100/1 odds, Paul Menard may seem like a complete waste of a money, but there is potential. Last season, five of his six top-10 finishes came at 1.5-mile tracks designed similarly to Las Vegas Motor Speedway. More importantly, he has been on a tear in 2011 since joining Richard Childress Racing. Menard is coming off career-best finishes at Daytona and Phoenix, and if the trend continues this weekend, there is a chance he could pull off a major upset.
Driver/Odds
A.J. Allmendinger #43 60/1
Andy Lally #71 300/1
Bill Elliott #09 250/1
Bobby Labonte #47 200/1
Brad Keselowski #2 80/1
Brian Keselowski #92 300/1
Brian Vickers #83 35/1
Carl Edwards #99 15/2
Casey Mears #13 250/1
Clint Bowyer #33 25/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. #88 35/1
Dave Blaney #36 250/1
David Gilliland #34 250/1
David Ragan #6 100/1
David Reutimann #00 40/1
Denny Hamlin #11 11/1
Greg Biffle #16 15/1
J.J. Yeley #46 250/1
Jamie McMurray #1 30/1
Jeff Burton #31 25/1
Jeff Gordon #24 7/1
Jimmie Johnson #48 9/2
Joe Nemechek #87 300/1
Joey Logano #20 25/1
Juan Pablo Montoya #42 30/1
Kasey Kahne #4 22/1
Kevin Harvick #29 12/1
Kurt Busch #22 14/1
Kyle Busch #18 6/1
Landon Cassill #60 300/1
Marcos Ambrose #9 150/1
Mark Martin #5 25/1
Martin Truex Jr. #56 50/1
Matt Kenseth #17 25/1
Michael McDowell #66 300/1
Paul Menard #27 100/1
Regan Smith #78 100/1
Robby Gordon #7 300/1
Ryan Newman #39 30/1
Terry Labonte #32 300/1
Tony Raines #37 300/1
Tony Stewart #14 12/1
Travis Kvapil #38 250/1
Trevor Bayne #21 100/1
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