2013 College Basketball Picks: Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati Odds and Predictions – Free NCAA Basketball Picks

2013 College Basketball Picks: Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NCAA Basketball Picks 2/9/2013: It is tough to find another conference as deep and as unpredictable as the Big East this season, and two of the seven teams ranked in the top 25 will go at it Saturday when the 23ranked Pittsburgh Panthers (19-5, 7-4 Big East) go on the road to face the 17th-ranked Cincinnati Bearcats (18-5, 6-4 Big East). With both sides sitting two games back in the loss column of the top teams in the Big East, Saturday’s showdown could be a defining game for the conference title hopes of both teams. The game is also a rematch of the conference opener for both teams, and in the first meeting, the Bearcats stormed back from a halftime deficit and pulled away to a 70-61 victory on the road. The Panthers have bounced back since then, winning six of their last seven heading into Saturday’s matchup while Cincinnati is 2-2 in its last four games. Pittsburgh is an underdog in this one, but only by 1 ½ points.

For Pittsburgh, a stingy defense and efficient offense have been fueling the team’s success. The Panthers are allowing less than 55 points per game this season and lead the Big East in rebounding margin. On the offensive end, Pittsburgh is sixth in the country in assists and 15th in field goal percentage. Point guard Tray Woodall runs the show, but the Panthers are one of the most balanced offensive teams in the country. Woodall leads the team in scoring at 10.8 points per game, but he is one of 10 players that are chipping in more than four points per game. More importantly, Pittsburgh is able to score inside with big men Talib Zanna and Steven Adams or outside with Woodall and Lamar Patterson. There is no shortage of depth for the Panthers this season.

A dynamic backcourt has been shooting the Bearcats to victories this season. Sean Kilpatrick leads the team with 18.3 points per game, but fellow guards Cashmere Wright and JaQuon Parker are also scoring in double figures. Kilpatrick and Wright are particularly deadly from long range, and the duo has combined for 112 3-pointers so far this season. Cincinnati doesn’t have much in the way of interior scoring, but the Bearcats’ frontcourt does take care of business on the defensive end. Cincinnati is averaging seven blocks per game as a team and owns the second-best rebounding margin in the Big East. The Bearcats are also averaging eight steals per game, and when they are at their best, they are using their defense to get quick scoring chances on offense.

The Bearcats Win If:

It all starts with the trio of guards for a Bearcats’ team that just doesn’t have an inside scoring presence. If Kilpatrick, Wright and Parker are hitting shots from the perimeter, it is going to stretch the Pittsburgh defense and open up driving lanes for easy scores and make a sometimes-stagnant offense and explosive one. Defensively, Cincinnati has to stop Zanna and Adams from getting easy scores in the paint and make Pittsburgh take as many shots as possible from the perimeter. The Panthers are not a good 3-point shooting team, and if the Bearcats can take away Pittsburgh’s interior scoring, Kilpatrick and company can definitely win a jump shooting contest. If this game comes down to which team can get the most points from its backcourt, Cincinnati is going to complete a season sweep of the Panthers.

The Panthers Win If:

Pittsburgh is definitely the more balanced team on the offensive end of the court, and if the Panthers exploit that edge Saturday, they can control the game. By establishing Zanna and their other big men on the offensive end, the Panthers can shoot a high percentage and limit the transition scoring chances for Cincinnati. The Bearcats aren’t a great offensive team in the half court, and if Pittsburgh’s already-solid defense is going to be even better if its gets time to set up. The last thing the Panthers want is to get into a fast-paced game and start trying to exchange 3-pointers with a Cincinnati team loaded with perimeter firepower. If Pittsburgh makes sure this game is played predominantly in the half court, the Panthers’ superior defense and more balanced offense will win out.

The Bottom Line:

Although Cincinnati and Pittsburgh are both averaging just over 71 points per game, their offenses aren’t exactly the same. The Bearcats tend to live and die by the 3-pointer, and lately, Cincinnati’s perimeter-oriented attack has been struggling. The Bearcats have shot less than 40 percent from the field in five straight games. Open shots aren’t going to be any easier to come by against Pittsburgh’s stout defense. Not to mention the fact that the balanced, efficient Panthers’ offense has been providing plenty of support recently. In general, Pittsburgh has the more consistent offense, the better defense and the deeper bench, and after letting an eight-point halftime lead slip away in the first meeting with Cincinnati, the Panthers will know better than to let up on a streaky Bearcats’ group that can score in bunches. As they have for the last several weeks, the Panthers will deliver another solid effort on both ends of the court and continue to climb back up the Big East standings as they avenge their earlier loss to the Bearcats.

Prediction: Pittsburgh Panthers (+1 ½) Cover the Spread

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati
Line: Cincinnati -1.5
Total: Over/Under 123
Time: 6:00 PM EST on ESPN2

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