2012 Week 14 NFL Picks: Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 12/9/2012: A pair of NFC North rivals will go head to head Sunday night when the Detroit Lions (4-8) travel to Lambeau Field to face the Green Bay Packers (8-4). The teams are at opposite ends of the division with the Packers tied for the top spot while the Lions are sitting in the cellar. The game is a rematch of a November 18 meeting won by Green Bay 24-20 in Detroit. The Packers scored 10 points in the final two minutes to rally to win, and playing at home this time around, they are 6 ½-point favorites.
Detroit’s offense revolves around throwing the ball, and quarterback Matthew Stafford currently heads the top-ranked passing attack in the NFL. Receiver Calvin Johnson is his top target, and while his 1,428 yards are the most in the league by a wide margin, the rest of the receiving options have been inconsistent. The same goes for the ground game where Mikel Leshoure is averaging just 3.7 yards per carry, and as a result, the Lions rank outside the top 10 in points per game. Detroit has struggled on defense, as well. The Lions rank outside the top 15 against both the run and the pass and are one of the worst scoring defenses in the NFL, allowing more than 26 points per game. Detroit’s pass rush has been the biggest disappointment, ranking in the middle of the pack despite plenty of talent along the defensive line.
Led by defending MVP Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay has been a pass-first team, as well. Rodgers is leading the NFL in QB rating and is third in the league with 29 touchdowns despite the lack of a ground game and playing with a revolving group of receivers. This weekend’s game will be no exception as Jordy Nelson will be sidelined. The Green Bay defense will be dealing with injuries, as well. Corner Charles Woodson and pass rushing expert Clay Matthews will also be sidelined for a unit that has been mediocre against both the run and the pass. On the plus side, the Packers rank fourth in sacks.
The Lions Win If:
With Woodson on the sidelines, the Lions have no excuse not to look for Johnson early and often in the passing game. He had 143 yards and a score in the first meeting, and if he has another big game Sunday, Detroit should have plenty of chances to put points on the board. Stafford and company also have to limit turnovers. Detroit had four turnovers in its loss to Green Bay, including a pick-six, and allowed five sacks. If the Lions can nearly knock of the Packers despite having so many mistakes, there is no reason they can’t spring the upset if they can at least keep the turnovers and sacks to a reasonable number. Defensively, Detroit’s talented but underachieving defensive line needs to come to play. It is no secret that Green Bay throws the ball early and often, and if the Lions’ defense can get pressure on Rodgers, they can disrupt the Packers’ passing attack enough to give Stafford and the offense a chance to win the game.
The Packers Win If:
The Green Bay offense hasn’t been the high-powered scoring machine it was a year ago, and while the lack of a running game has been blamed, the Packers really didn’t run the ball well last year either. Pass protection and injuries to the wide receivers have been the real issue, but if the Green Bay offensive line can deliver a solid performance and Greg Jennings can return to form in his second game back from injury, everything else will fall into place. Jennings is a true No. 1 receiver, and while Nelson is out, the Packers’ offense should start to click again if Jennings is commanding double teams. Defensively, Green Bay just needs to repeat its effort from the first meeting with Detroit and pressure Stafford and the Lions’ offense into mistakes. If the Packers terrorize Stafford and start to find a rhythm on offense, they can sweep their division rival.
Bottom Line:
Yes, Detroit is mired in a four-game losing streak, but the Lions’ last three loses have all come by four points or less. More importantly, Detroit is catching the Packers at a time when their offense is a bit out of sync and their defense is banged up. There is a reason that Woodson, Matthews and Nelson are among the Green Bay stars targeting next weekend’s meeting with Chicago for their return. The meeting with the Bears will likely decide the NFC North, but while the Packers rest up for that crucial showdown, the Lions have the offensive firepower to make a compromised Green Bay defense pay. Granted, Rodgers is more than capable of pulling out another close win like he did when he led the Packers to a come-from-behind victory in Detroit earlier this year. However, look for a Lions’ bunch with nothing to lose to hang close with a Green Bay team that will likely be looking ahead to next weekend.
Prediction: Detroit Lions (+6 ½) Cover the Spread
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Green Bay Packers
Total: Over/Under 49
Time: 8:30 PM EST on NBC
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