2012 Week 11 NFL Picks: Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 11/19/2012: Two of the top teams in the NFC will take the field Monday night when the Chicago Bears (7-2) go on the road to face the San Francisco 49ers (6-2-1). Both teams enter matchup sitting atop the respective division, and both have used a similar recipe for success, relying on power running and defense to win games. The two sides have something less-flattering in common, as well. Chicago’s Jay Cutler and San Francisco’s Alex Smith were both knocked out of their games last weekend with concussions. With Cutler likely out and the status of Smith still up in the air, oddsmakers have yet to assign a spread for this one.
Whether or not Smith is under center for the 49ers, they are a run-first team. Frank Gore is the workhorse of the top-ranked rushing offense in the NFL, and fellow back Kendall Hunter is a solid counterpunch. Both players are averaging at least five yards per carry on the year. Meanwhile, the defense has been one of the stingiest in football, ranking fifth against the pass and sixth against the run. Patrick Willis and Justin Smith headline the unit, and while San Francisco isn’t posting gaudy sack or turnover totals, the 49ers’ defense is allowing the fewest points in the NFL.
Chicago is also a run-first team with the two-headed monster of Matt Forte and Michael Bush leading the ninth-ranked rushing attack. However, Cutler had been providing plenty of big plays in the passing game with receiver Brandon Marshall being on the receiving end of most of them. Marshall has accounted for nearly half of Cutler’s passing yards this year and more than half of his touchdowns. The chemistry between the two players has helped the Bears’ offense reach a new level, but it remains to be seen if Marshall can develop the same chemistry with backup Jason Campbell. On the plus side, Chicago’s defense ranks in the top 10 against both the run and pass and also ranks second in fewest points allowed. Brian Urlacher, Julius Peppers and Charles Tillman lead a group that is forcing more turnovers than any other defense in the NFL. The Bears’ defense has been a big play waiting to happen, and they have already scored a league-high seven touchdowns this year.
The Bears Win If:
Even if Smith is under center for San Francisco, the game plan doesn’t change for Chicago. The Bears are going to have Campbell under center, and keeping him out of third and longs and not falling behind are musts. The Bears don’t have to gash the 49ers on the ground, but they do have to move the chains and control the clock enough to keep their defense rested. Meanwhile, the opportunistic defense needs to be just that and control field position and force a few turnovers in order to set the table for the offense. If Chicago can make this game the defensive battle that everyone expects it to be, the Bears have the playmakers on their defense to knock off the 49ers even if the offense doesn’t put a lot of points on the board. If this became becomes high-scoring in the least, the Bears are in trouble.
The 49ers Win If:
With Cutler on the sidelines, the already-stingy San Francisco rush defense has to make sure that Campbell and the Bears’ passing attack has to be them. From there, the 49ers’ secondary has to take away Marshall as an option for Campbell. After all, he has more than 900 yards on the year, and no other Chicago receiver has reached 200 yards thus far. On the offensive side of the ball, it is more important for San Francisco to avoid turnovers than it is to make plays. Turning the ball over and giving Chicago a short field is the last thing the 49ers want. If this game boils down to which offense can methodically move the ball into scoring position the most often, the more complete San Francisco offense should win out over four quarters.
Bottom Line:
While neither side is 100 percent healthy entering this matchup, missing Cutler puts the Bears at a huge disadvantage. After all, we got a preview of what Chicago looks like without Cutler when he suffered a broken thumb last year, and the Bears promptly went from a playoff-caliber team to one that could barely win a game. Going up against a stout defense like San Francisco’s only adds insult to injury, and as great as Chicago’s defense is in its own right, the 49ers’ conservative, ball-control offense will only award Tillman and company so many opportunities to make plays. It will be a hard-hitting affair, but the 49ers will take advantage of Cutler’s absence to notch the win.
Prediction: San Francisco 49ers Win the Game
Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -3.5
Total: Over/Under 35.5
Time: 8:30 PM EST on ESPN
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