2012 Week 8 NFL Picks: San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 10/29/2012: The top spot in the NFC West will be on the line when the San Francisco 49ers (5-2) go on the road to face the Arizona Cardinals (4-3) Monday night. With a win, the 49ers can take a commanding lead in their bid to repeat as division champs. Meanwhile, the Cardinals will be looking to pull even by snapping a three-game losing streak. Having cooled off dramatically since their 4-0 start, Arizona is a seven-point underdog at home.
If you enjoy high-powered offenses and stellar quarterback, this isn’t a game for you. San Francisco ranks 29th in passing offense, averaging less than 200 yards per game through the air. Of course, Arizona isn’t much better, ranking 27th in passing yards. The big difference between the two offenses is that while the Cardinals are also a pitiful running ream, the 49ers own the second-best rushing attack in the NFL. Led by power back Frank Gore, San Francisco is averaging more than 176 yards per game on the ground. Meanwhile, Arizona is averaging less than 90 yards per game while dealing with injuries to running backs Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams.
Although neither side is going to put on a show on offense, both teams do bring solid defenses into the matchup. San Francisco ranks in the top 10 against both the run and pass and actually has the top-ranked defense against the run. The 49ers also rank second in scoring defense and are allowing the fewest yards per game in the NFL. For their part, the Cardinals rank fourth against the pass and are allowing the fourth-fewest points of any team in the NFL. Needless to say, Monday’s game could turn into a low-scoring, defensive battle.
The 49ers Win If:
Arizona’s offense is terrible and San Francisco’s defense is arguably the best in the NFL. As long as San Francisco quarterback Alex Smith doesn’t implode and start firing interceptions, the Cardinals are going to have serious issues putting points on the board. The 49ers just need to let their defense win the field position battle and pound away with their power running game on offense. The Cardinals’ mediocre run defense will eventually wear down, and the classic formula of running the ball and playing defense will lead to a San Francisco victory.
The Cardinals Win If:
While their offense has been embarrassing at times, Arizona’s defense has been solid despite occasional struggles against the run. In particular, the Patrick Peterson and the Cardinals’ secondary has been great at creating turnovers. Smith has been falling into some of his bad habits lately, and if Arizona can take advantage to the tune of a few interceptions, the Cardinals can keep this game low-scoring and close. From there, a big play from Larry Fitzgerald or a big play from the explosive Cardinals’ special teams unit could be enough to stun the 49ers. If Arizona’s defense can create some turnovers and the offense can avoid turning the ball over, the Cardinals have a shot.
Bottom Line:
While the below average defense against the run and sputtering offense are both reasons for the Cardinals to be concerned, the biggest issue for Arizona is its offensive line. The Cardinals are allowing an average of five sacks per game, and against a San Francisco defense that is arguably the best in the NFL, points are going to be next to impossible to come by. Barring an absolute meltdown from Smith, the 49ers will run their way to enough points to win the game comfortably. Arizona is trending in the wrong direction anyway, and the Cardinals just don’t have near the firepower on offense to handle San Francisco’s loaded defense.
Prediction: San Francisco 49ers (-7) Cover the Spread
San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: 49ers -7
Total: Over/Under 38
Time: 8:30 PM EST on ESPN
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