2012 Week 7 NFL Picks: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 10/21/2012: The season isn’t even halfway over, but Sunday night’s meeting between the Pittsburgh Steelers (2-3) and Cincinnati Bengals (3-3) at Paul Brown Stadium feels like a must-win game for these bitter rivals. With Baltimore running away with the AFC North, neither side can afford a fourth loss if they want any hope of catching the Ravens. Injuries have plagued both teams, and while the Bengals have lost their last two games, the Steelers are 0-3 on the road. Something has to give Sunday. The games always seem to be close when these two teams get together, and while the Bengals are underdogs at home, they are only getting a single point.
Offensively, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati can feel each other’s pain. Injuries to both offensive lines have rendered their running games ineffective, and the Steelers are also dealing with an injury to multiple running backs, including starter Rashard Mendenhall. Cincinnati quarterback Andy Dalton and Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger have been forced to throw early and often, and both teams currently rank in the top 10 in the NFL in passing yards. However, the passing attacks haven’t produced consistent point totals, and both sides rank outside the top 10 in points per game.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Steelers would appear to have an edge on paper. Pittsburgh ranks in the top 10 against both the run and pass and is allowing the fourth-fewest yards per game overall. However, injuries to multiple starters, including star safety Troy Polamalu, have taken their toll in recent weeks. Not to mention that both defenses rank in the middle of the pack in terms of points allowed. The Bengals are actually allowing more than 27 points a game, but they do rank second in the NFL in sacks. Overall, neither defense has shown that it is capable of going out and shutting down an opponent on a consistent basis.
The Steelers Win If:
Pittsburgh can’t run the football, and the Bengals are going to be coming after Roethlisberger all night long. However, Roethlisberger has been able to avoid opposing pass rushes for the most part, and if he does the same Sunday night, the Steelers should have plenty of big play opportunities in the passing game. Receivers Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown are both burners, and they should win their matchups against a Bengals’ secondary that has been mediocre at best and has managed just two interceptions. Meanwhile, the Steelers’ defense just need to limit the big plays of Cincinnati’s passing attack, and the Bengals’ one-dimensional offense will struggle to score. If Pittsburgh keeps Roethlisberger upright and makes the Dalton and company work for their points, the Steelers are going to emerge with the win.
The Bengals Win If:
The Steelers have the second-worst running game in the NFL, and the Bengals have the second-best pass rush. With Pittsburgh being forced to throw the ball in order to score points, Geno Atkins and the rest of the Cincinnati pass rushers should have a golden opportunity to add to their sack totals. If the Bengals are able to get Roethlisberger to the ground and disrupt the Steelers’ downfield passing attack, Pittsburgh is going to struggle to score. Meanwhile, Dalton and company have to take advantage of the injuries to Pittsburgh’s secondary to connect on a few big plays. As long as Cincinnati can get consistent pressure on Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh’s injuries will add up to a win for the Bengals.
Bottom Line:
There are some numbers that do lie, and the stingy yardage totals allowed by the Pittsburgh defense are among them. In three road games this season, the Steelers are allowing 30.3 points per game and have surrendered at least 26 points in all three games. Now, this defense is missing its most important player and is heading into a matchup against the NFL’s leading receiver in A.J. Green. Pittsburgh hasn’t been able to stop big plays on the road all year, and it isn’t going to start against a strong Cincinnati passing attack. Yes, Roethlisberger will hit a few big plays of his own to his speedy receivers, but the Bengals’ pass rush will make enough plays to secure the win.
Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals (+1) Cover the Spread
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Pittsburgh -1
Total: Over/Under 45.5
Time: 8:30 PM EST on NBC
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