2012 Week 6 NFL Picks: Green Bay Packers @ Houston Texans Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 10/14/2012: When the schedule came out, the Week 6 meeting between Green Bay and Houston had heavyweight matchup written all over it. The Texans have lived up to their end of the deal, jumping out to a 5-0 start. However, the Packers have disappointed thus far, starting 2-3 after going 15-1 a year ago. As a result, it is Houston thinking about a division title and a potential Super Bowl run, while Green Bay is in desperate need of a victory just to stay in the thick of the playoff hunt. It may not be the scenario most people expected, but these two teams are still loaded with stars. Still, the undefeated Texans are 3 ½-point favorites at home.
Offensively, these two teams couldn’t be more different. Led by star running back Arian Foster, Houston owns the sixth-best rushing attack in the NFL and the third-highest scoring offense. The Texans use the run to set up big play opportunities in the passing game, but for the most part, quarterback Matt Schaub is asked to be an efficient game manager. Green Bay, on the other hand, throws it early and often with defending MVP Aaron Rodgers. The Packers will likely be throwing even more than usual in this one because of an injury to running back Cedric Benson, making it a true clash of styles on the offensive end.
On the defensive side of the ball, Houston has had one of the best units in the NFL. The Texans currently rank in the top five in points fewest points allowed and fewest yards allowed, and more importantly, they have the third-best pass defense. The Packers can’t even come close to matching those numbers, but they do lead the NFL with 18.0 sacks. On paper, the defensive edge definitely goes to Houston. However, linebacker Brian Cushing was lost for the year last weekend, and it is tough to tell how the loss will impact the unit until Houston actually plays a game without him.
The Packers Win If:
Green Bay bolstered its pass rush in the draft, but the team’s run defense remains mediocre at best. With Houston bringing one of the best rushing attacks in the league into this game, the Packers best bet at slowing down Foster is to score points early. Rodgers and company need a fast start offensively to force the Texans away from their power running attack. Basically, the onus will fall on Rodgers to shoulder the load. If he performs like he did during his MVP season a year ago and puts 30-plus points on the board, Green Bay can force Houston to abandon the run and win the game.
The Texans Win If:
Plain and simple, Green Bay can’t run the ball. The Texans have an excellent secondary and a solid pass rush, and they know the Packers are going to be throwing the ball a lot. If Houston takes away the big plays by pressuring Rodgers and forcing quick throws, the Texans can control the high-powered passing attack of the Packers. Houston can also help its cause by establishing the run early and keeping Green Bay’s offense off the field. If Foster and the ground game do their thing on offense and the Houston defenses puts a little heat on Rodgers, the Texans will stay unblemished.
Bottom Line:
While the loss of Cushing will be felt during the course of the year, it will be minimized against Green Bay because of the Packers’ complete lack of a ground game. More importantly, Houston will be able to exploit Green Bay’s lack of balance on offense by blitzing Rodgers and taking away big play opportunities. The Packers have scored 23 points or less against three best teams they have played this year, and Houston should hold them to a similar total, especially with receiver Greg Jennings out of action. Meanwhile, the Green Bay defense just allowed rookie Andrew Luck and the Colts to put up 30 points so the odds of the same unit holding the Texans’ offense in check is slim. Rodgers will still have his moments, but the Packers just don’t have enough balance on either side of the ball to go on the road and knock off a very solid Houston team.
Prediction: Houston Texans (-3 ½) Cover the Spread
Green Bay Packers @ Houston Texans
Line: Houston -3.5
Total: Over/Under 47.5
Time: 8:30 PM EST on NBC
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