2012 NFL Picks and Odds: San Diego Chargers @ New Orleans Saints Predictions – Week 5 Sunday Night Football Picks

2012 Week 5 NFL Picks: San Diego Chargers @ New Orleans Saints Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 9/30/2012: It has been a rough year for the New Orleans Saints. With head coach Sean Payton serving a season-long suspension as a result of the bounty scandal, the Saints are off to an 0-4 start, and it could get worse. San Diego will visit the Superdome Sunday night, and the Chargers enter the matchup with a 3-1 record. New Orleans’ chances of recovering are already slim, and falling to 0-5 is not an option if the Saints want to return the playoffs. Brees and company will have to put a halt to the Chargers’ hot start if they want to win, but despite being winless themselves, the Saints are 3 ½-point favorites on their home turf.

While it is tough to find the bright side of an 0-4 record, the Saints have lost all four games by an average of five points and haven’t lost a single game by more than eight points. Not to mention that fact that Saints’ quarterback Drew Brees needs just one touchdown pass to break Johnny Unitas’ record for consecutive games with a passing touchdown. Meanwhile, San Diego hasn’t exactly beaten great competition. The Chargers’ three wins came against Oakland, Kansas City and Tennessee, who are a combined 3-9 on the year. The only tough opponent San Diego has faced was Atlanta, and the Falcons throttled the Chargers 27-3 in San Diego. In other words, both teams have a lot of questions to answer heading into Sunday’s meeting.

The Chargers Win If:

To put it kindly, the New Orleans Saints have been an embarrassment on defense. They have been particularly awful against the run, allowing an NFL-worst 186.8 rushing yards per game. San Diego has been using a platoon with Ryan Matthews and Jackie Battle in the backfield, and the results have been mediocre thus far. The Chargers have to take advantage of New Orleans’ weak defensive front and establish a ground game to control the tempo. San Diego’s pass defense has been below average in 2012, but the best way to limit the production of Drew Brees and the high-powered aerial attack of the Saints is to keep him off the field. Meanwhile, quarterback Phillip Rivers has to avoid turnovers and pick his spots against a porous New Orleans secondary. If the Chargers avoid getting into a shootout with the Saints offense and make the New Orleans defense work for stops, San Diego should be able to exploit the Saints’ defensive weaknesses and hand them another loss.

The Saints Win If:

Despite all the losses, defensive problems and off-field distractions, the Saints’ passing attack remains potent. Brees leads the NFL in passing yards, and New Orleans ranks third in passing yards per game. Meanwhile, San Diego’s defense ranks 18th against, which means Brees and company should have plenty of chances to put points on the board. New Orleans is averaging 27.5 points per game in 2012, and the Saints’ offense should be able to reach that mark and more in this matchup. As long as the defense can make the Chargers work for their points and limit the easy scores, Brees and the offense should do the rest. New Orleans’ defense isn’t going to become a good unit overnight, but if it can just be average, the Saints should be able to keep an unexplosive Chargers’ offense from outscoring Brees and company.

Bottom Line:

While the Saints’ offense isn’t at the same level it was a year ago with Payton on the sidelines, it is still one of the better units in the NFL. San Diego’s weak secondary got lit up by Atlanta’s passing attack, and the Chargers are likely going to allow New Orleans to put up 30-plus points. As a result, San Diego will eventually have to play at the Saints’ pace, which is bad news for Rivers and company. The Chargers just don’t have a lot of playmakers on offense, and they have yet to prove they can keep up with a strong offensive team. San Diego has beaten up on soft competition thus far, and while the Saints are 0-4, their offensive firepower will give the Chargers fits in this one.

Prediction: New Orleans Saints (-3 ½) Cover the Spread

San Diego Chargers @ New Orleans Saints
Line: New Orleans -3.5
Total: Over/Under 53
Time: 8:30 PM EST on NBC

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