2012 NFL Picks: New England Patriots @ Baltimore Ravens Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 9/23/2012: Two of the most consistent franchises in the NFL will meet Sunday night when the New England Patriots go on the road to face the Baltimore Ravens. The Patriots have won at least 10 games in each of the past nine seasons, while the Ravens are the only team in the NFL to make the playoffs in each of the last four seasons and win at least one postseason game in all four years. Not to mention that both teams won their division last season. The game is also a rematch of last year’s AFC title game won by the Patriots thanks in part to a dropped touchdown pass by Lee Evans and a missed field goal by Billy Cundiff. Both sides are thinking Super Bowl in 2012, but after surprising losses last weekend by both teams, the loser of Sunday night’s matchup will be sitting at 1-2. It is a battle of heavyweights, and fittingly, Baltimore is favored by just a single point.
In the past, this game has been a battle between the high-powered New England offense and the stingy Baltimore defense. However, the roles have been somewhat reversed in 2012. The Ravens’ offense looks as balanced as it ever has, while the defense has struggled a bit without defending Defensive Player of the Year Terrell Suggs. Meanwhile, New England’s revamped defense has been outstanding, while the normally unstoppable passing attack of Tom Brady and company has looked out of sorts.
If the Patriots are going to go into Baltimore and win, they will have to find a way to get the passing attack in sync. Granted, there is nothing the team can do about the injury to tight end Aaron Hernandez, but plenty of other issues remain. Slot receiver Wes Welker has inexplicably seen his role reduced despite being one of the most productive pass catchers in the game since coming to New England, while free agent addition Brandon Lloyd hasn’t quite gelled with Brady. More importantly, the offense line has struggled thus far, preventing Brady from having enough time to carve up defenses with his precision passing. The weapons are still there, but there is a lot going wrong right now in New England on the offensive side of the ball, and it is hard to imagine all the issues being fixed in just a week.
Baltimore’s defense has had some issues, as well, but they haven’t been as glaring as New England’s offensive woes. In fact, the defense stifled Cincinnati in the opener before giving away a 10-point lead in a 24-23 loss to the Eagles last weekend. Yes, it was an uncharacteristic performance from Ray Lewis and company, but in the end, giving up 24 points to an offense as loaded as Philadelphia’s isn’t a reason to hit the panic button. Not to mention that the Baltimore run defense has still been excellent, which will put all the pressure on Brady and New England’s sputtering passing attack.
The X-factor is likely going to be Joe Flacco and the Ravens’ improved passing attack. Running back Ray Rice has been a stud since his rookie year, but in the past, better teams like New England have been able to slow down Baltimore’s offense by loading the box to stop Rice. This year, Flacco has been making teams pay. The emergence of receiver Torrey Smith and tight end Dennis Pitta to go along with veteran receiver Anquan Boldin has given the passing attack more dimensions. As a result, the Ravens are able to hit big plays through the air, giving the offense more than enough balance to allow Rice to do his thing. New England’s defense has been much better in 2012, but the Patriots have never seen a Baltimore offense like the one they will face Sunday.
One bad loss could be nothing more than a fluke, but New England’s loss to Arizona last weekend is very concerning, especially given the state of the Cardinals’ offense. Even on a bad day, the Ravens have a better defense and a much better offense than Arizona. In the end, the Ravens have played two better teams than the Patriots and have looked better doing it. Maybe Bill Belichick is doing some kind of early season reverse psychology and having his team play poorly, but the balanced offense and still solid defense of Baltimore seems like a safe bet to pull out a win at home.
Prediction: Baltimore Ravens (-1) Cover the Spread
New England Patriots @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Baltimore -2.5
Total: Over/Under 49.5
Time: 8:30 PM EST on NBC
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