2012 College Football Picks: BCS National Title Favorites to Avoid

2012 College Football Picks: BCS National Championship Favorites to Avoid Betting On: Every year, there are always a few teams that end up being overrated to start the year by both voters and oddsmakers. Last year, Florida State and Oklahoma were two of the biggest offenders. Whether it is a program’s winning tradition or an overreaction to one successful year, certain teams always get tabbed with lofty expectations that they simply never live up to. Granted, making future bets in college football is always tough because of injuries and other factors that don’t arise until the middle of the season, but bettors can save themselves some disappointment by avoiding some favorites that have a high potential to flame out this year. With that in mind, here is a look at a few teams that are getting decent odds to win the national title in the upcoming 2012 college football season that should be avoided.

2012 College Football Picks: BCS National Championship Favorites to Avoid Betting On

1.      Texas Longhorns (+3550)

The good news is that the Longhorns have an arsenal of talented to running backs to lead their power running game, and they should have the best defense in the Big 12. The bad news is that this team is still searching for a quarterback, and in a conference where four teams averaged more than 40 points, Texas didn’t even average 30 points per game. In fact, Mack Brown’s bunch ranked third last in the Big 12 in points per game, outscoring only Iowa State and Kansas. Granted, the departure of Robert Griffin III from Baylor and Brandon Weeden from Oklahoma State should bring those programs down to earth a bit, but the Longhorns still have to find a way to keep pace with the high-powered offenses of Oklahoma, West Virginia and TCU this season. Texas is going to be lucky to win its conference, let alone compete for a national title.

2.      Michigan Wolverines (+3650)

It is easy to get excited about the Michigan Wolverines. After all, they are coming off a Sugar Bowl win, and human highlight reel Denard Robinson is back at quarterback. However, a suspect defensive line and a tough schedule will likely keep a national title on hold for the Wolverines. Michigan opens the year against defending national champion Alabama, and if the Wolverines somehow knock off the Crimson Tide, Michigan State and Ohio State are still lurking later in the year. The Spartans’ defense completely shut down Robinson and company last year, and although Michigan snapped its seven-year losing streak against Ohio State, a horrible Buckeyes’ offense gashed the Wolverines’ defense for 34 points. Michigan State’s defense is just as good as it was last season, the Buckeyes’ offense should be better with Urban Meyer’s system in place, and Michigan’s defense is worse. A national title run is going to be tough even for Robinson to engineer.

3.      Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+3700)

Maybe it’s the Notre Dame mystique lingering, but there are several dozen team that have a better shot at winning a national title than the Fighting Irish. Quarterback Tommy Rees may or may not start the season after some off the field issues, and even if he does, it’s not like he performed like a Heisman candidate when he was playing. Notre Dame had one of the worst turnover differentials in the country last year, and the Fighting Irish turned the ball over 19 times in their five losses alone. Throw in the fact that they are one of the most-penalized teams in the country and a brutal schedule, and a national title run seems next to impossible. Notre Dame has to go through Michigan, Michigan State, USC, Oklahoma, Miami and Stanford, and that is just the tough games. Brian Kelly’s bunch will be lucky to lose only three games.

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Odds to win the BCS National Championship
1601 Alabama +500
1602 Arkansas +1800
1603 Auburn +5000
1604 Arizona +12500
1605 Boise State +6600
1606 Boston College +20000
1607 BYU +17500
1608 California +8000
1609 Cincinnati +8000
1610 Clemson +3000
1611 Florida +5000
1612 Florida State +1500
1613 Georgia +1800
1614 Georgia Tech +15000
1615 Iowa +10000
1616 Kansas State +5000
1617 LSU +400
1618 Miami +12500
1619 Michigan +3000
1620 Michigan State +7500
1621 Missouri +10000
1622 Mississippi State +8000
1623 Nebraska +3500
1624 North Carolina
1625 Notre Dame +2500
1627 Oklahoma +1000
1628 Oklahoma State +8000
1629 Oregon +1200
1630 Oregon State +25000
1631 Penn State
1632 Pittsburgh +12500
1633 South Carolina +3500
1634 South Florida +12500
1635 Stanford +10000
1636 TCU +5000
1637 Tennessee +10000
1638 Texas +2800
1639 Texas A&M +12000
1640 UCLA +17500
1641 USC +400
1642 Virginia Tech +2500
1643 Washington +10000
1644 West Virginia +3000
1645 Wisconsin +6000
1646 Field +1500

Check out NSAwins.com’s official 2012 Big Ten Football Predictions and Odds article.

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