2012 Kentucky Derby Free Picks: Favorites to Avoid Betting On

2012 Kentucky Derby Free Picks – Favorites to Avoid Betting On: When placing a bet, it is only natural to gravitate toward the favorites, and horse racing is no exception. Sure, the payoff isn’t great, but there is something to be said about the level of comfort that comes with picking the horse that is supposed to the next best thing to a sure thing. However, picking the favorite in the Kentucky Derby has been anything but beneficial for bettors for more than three decades. Since 1979, the favorite has gone on to win the Run for the Roses just five times. In other words, being tabbed the favorite has been more of a curse than a blessing. With that in mind, here are a few frontrunners bettors should shy away from.

1.      Bodemeister (9/2 odds)

After his dominating win in the Arkansas Derby, I liked Bodemeister enough to list him as a sleeper. Apparently, oddsmakers thought enough of his victory to make him a co-favorite for Saturday’s Kentucky Derby, and I’m not buying this horse at those odds. For starters, the favorite has won the Run for the Roses just twice in the last seven years. More importantly, Bodemeister has run just four races this year and didn’t run a single race as a two year old. Inexperience hasn’t been a precursor to success at Churchill Downs, as just one horse has won the Kentucky Derby without racing as a two year old. When a horse is trying to do something that hasn’t been done since 1882, I want a little more bang for my buck than 9/2 odds.

2.      Dullahan (7/1 odds)

Like Bodemeister, I thought Dullahan would be a nice sleeper pick prior to the odds being released. However, his 7/1 odds more than scared me off because of the horse’s sketchy resume on dirt and another interesting stat. Yes, Dullahan has a Hall of Fame jockey and a win in the Blue Grass Stakes, but his 0-3 record at Churchill Downs raises some eyebrows. Also, only two horses in the last 57 years have won the Kentucky Derby after needing four of more races to notch their first win. For the record, Dullahan won in his fifth career start. I was willing to overlook his issues on dirt surfaces and the less-than-comforting history when I thought he would be somewhat of a longshot, but at his current odds, it’s tough to justify.

3.      Alpha (10/1 odds)

On the surface, Alpha looks like a solid pick. With three wins and two runner-up efforts in six starts, this horse has proven himself in both shorter and longer events. One of those second-place efforts came in the Wood Memorial when he gave undefeated Gemologist all he could handle. More importantly, Alpha’s bloodlines include an English Triple Crown winner and a Preakness winner. Despite all the positives, Alpha has had some issues with his temperament and his breaks from the starting gate. In a 20-horse field, a poor break is a death sentence, and given Alpha’s aggressive personality, a crowded track could also cause some problems. Yes, the question marks are minor compared to other horses, but when the reward is only coming at 10/1 odds, they are red flags.

Check out updated 2012 Kentucky Derby Odds and 2012 Kentucky Derby Predictions from NSAwins.com!

Updated Odds to Win the 2012 Kentucky Derby
900 My Adonis +5550
901 Daddy Long Legs +2250
902 Optimizer +3250
903 Take Charge Indy +1425
904 Union Rags +425
905 Dullahan +550
906 Bodemeister +395
907 Rousing Sermon +5550
908 Creative Cause +1050
909 Trinniberg +4250
910 Daddy Nose Best +2250
911 Alpha +1250
912 Prospective +4250
913 Went The Day Well +2525
914 Hansen +1150
915 Gemologist +525
916 El Padrino +2050
917 Done Talking +3550
918 Sabercat +3550
919 I’ll Have Another +1150
920 Liaison +4050