Week 9 Sunday NFL Picks: NY Jets @ Buffalo Bills Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 11/6/11

Week 9 Free NFL Picks: New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills NFL Week 9 Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions on CBS 11/6/11: Two serious contenders in the AFC East meet this Sunday when the New York Jets (4-3) visit the Buffalo Bills (5-2). The fact that the Bills are one of the top teams in the AFC is just as surprising as the fact that the Jets aren’t. After reach the AFC Championship Game in consecutive years, New York was supposed to be a Super Bowl threat. Meanwhile, the Bills were expected to finish near the bottom of the league as they have for the better part of the decade. That has been far from the case, and while the Bills will try to stay hot, the Jets enter Sunday’s matchup in need of a win as they try to claw back from a slow start. Playing at home, Buffalo is a 2 ½-point favorite against their division rivals.

Although the Jets have a modest two-game winning streak, it is tough to ignore the fact that they are 0-3 on the road this season. For whatever reason, the New York defense has been gashed away from home, giving up 30 or more points in all three losses. Rex Ryan and his staff will have to find a way to remedy the problem this weekend if the Jets have any chance of knocking off a Buffalo team with an explosive offense.

The sudden of emergence of running back Fred Jackson and quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has transformed the Bills’ offense. Jackson is on pace for more than 1,500 yards on the ground and more than 2,000 yards from scrimmage. Meanwhile, Fitzpatrick has quietly emerged as a franchise-type QB, and he is completing nearly 68 percent of his passes and is on pace for more than 30 touchdowns.

While Fitzpatrick and the passing game could struggle against the Darrelle Revis and the Jets’ seventh-ranked pass defense, Jackson could be in line for a big day. New York currently ranks 25th in the NFL against the run, allowing more than 125 rushing yards per game. The Bills have the fifth-best rushing attack in football, averaging more than 140 yards per contest. It is a mismatch on paper, and it could be a defining factor in Sunday’s game.

Of course, the Buffalo defense hasn’t exactly been stifling opponents. The Bills rank 20th or worse against both the pass and the run, which means the Jets’ offense could have some scoring opportunities. In particular, New York needs to continue to establish the ground game. After struggling early in the year, Shonn Greene is finally showing the form that made him a playoff star. Coming off his best game of the year last weekend, Greene could continue to roll against the porous Bills’ defense.

The X-factor will likely be New York QB Mark Sanchez. He has struggled in terms of completion percentage and on deeper throws, but he has become more efficient as the ground game has improved. If Sanchez keeps his turnovers to a minimum and manages the game, New York can win the game. If Sanchez ends up throwing every down, the Jets could struggle.

In the end, the balanced offensive attack of Buffalo should be the difference. Revis will likely take receiver Stevie Johnson out of the game, but Fitzpatrick has other viable options, including Jackson out of the backfield. Even though the Jets’ offensive attack has been improving lately, it has shown no signs of being able to win a high-scoring game. Throw in New York’s issues on the road stopping the run, and Jackson and the Bill’s ground game should keep Buffalo atop the AFC East.

Prediction: Buffalo Bills (-2 ½) Cover the Spread

Free NFL Football Picks and Predictions: Buffalo -2.5

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