Week 3 NFL Predictions: New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills Odds and Picks – Sunday Free NFL Picks 9/25

Week 3 Free NFL Picks: New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills NFL Week 3 Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions on CBS 9/25/11: While few football fans are surprised to see the New England patriots sitting at 2-0 heading into Sunday matchup in Buffalo, the fact that they are facing a Bills team that is also 2-0 is a bit of shock. Both teams have been powered by explosive offenses, and while the Patriots are trying to establish themselves as Super Bowl favorites, the Bills are trying to prove that their fast start isn’t a fluke. If Buffalo can upset New England (-7 ½), the Bills will prove they deserve to be considered contenders in the AFC East.

Buffalo’s sudden success has been directly related to the improved play of quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. He has tallied seven touchdown passes in 2011, taking full advantage of receivers Stevie Johnson and David Nelson. The improved passing game has opened up some running lanes for Fred Jackson. In fact, Jackson has helped the Bills become the top rushing team in the NFL on the young season. After scoring at least 35 points in both games, the Buffalo offense appears to be legit.

The New England offense can certainly be called legit as well, and that is an understatement. Coming off an MVP year, quarterback Tom Brady is on pace to throw for more than 7,000 yards in 2011. While that total is sure to return to a somewhat normal figure through the course of the year, the weapons at Brady’s disposal are no joke. Receiver Wes Welker is probably the best slot receiver in the game, and Deion Branch has immediately rekindled the chemistry he had with Brady during the Patriots’ Super Bowl years. Throw in tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez and potential deep threat Chad Ochocinco, and Brady has plenty of quality options to look for when he drops back to pass. Ochocinco will have to step up this weekend in particular, with Hernandez likely out with a knee issue.

With both offenses likely to impress, Sunday’s meeting could come down to which defense can step up. Granted, some of the yardage both sides have given up this season stems from jumping out to early leads, forcing opponents to throw to catch up. Still, the Patriots gave up more than 400 yards passing to Miami QB Chad Henne, and the Bills were torched by a normally nonexistent Oakland passing game. For both teams, getting solid play in the secondary will be crucial.

An X-factor Sunday could be the play of Jackson for Buffalo. Despite the issues in the secondary, New England does do a solid job of limiting opposing running backs. The Bills have taken advantage of Jackson’s success to utilize the play-action pass in 2011, but if the Patriots can make the Buffalo offense a little more one-dimensional, Fitzpatrick may find life under center a bit tougher. The Patriots have shown they have no problems winning with a one-dimensional, pass-heavy offense. The Bills may have to do the same Sunday.

While this appears to be Buffalo’s best shot to knock off New England, Brady and company still have more firepower to work with on offense and will likely shred a suspect Bills’ defense. The Patriots defense will give up some yards and points as well, but as San Diego QB Philip Rivers found out last weekend, the New England defense is also good at creating turnovers. In the end, the Patriots offense will overwhelm the Buffalo defense, allowing New England to build a comfortable gap.

Prediction: New England Patriots (-7 ½) Cover the Spread

Free NFL Football Picks and Predictions: New England -7.5

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